Coca-Cola raised its annual profit outlook on October 27, even as North American drink volumes flattened after growing 3% in the second quarter.
Worldwide drink volume rose 5%, led by India, China, Mexico and Brazil. Revenue reached $13.38 billion and adjusted earnings were 91 cents a share. Both beat analysts' estimates, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. Revenue expectations were $12.92 billion, with earnings estimated at 88 cents.
North America's slowdown in four numbers
The second-quarter report and third-quarter results show the change:
| North American measure | Second quarter 2026 | Third quarter 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Finished-drink volume growth | 3% | Flat |
| Price/mix growth | 4% | 1% |
| Revenue growth | 7% | 3% |
| Operating profit growth, adjusted for currency and specified items | 12% | 5% |
Each growth rate compares that quarter with the same quarter a year earlier. The move from 3% volume growth to flat is a slowdown of three percentage points; it does not mean sales volume fell 3% from the second quarter. North America also covers a region, rather than the United States alone.
In the second quarter, Coca-Cola cited growth in its trademark sodas and in juice, value-added dairy and plant-based beverages. The latest quarter had a different balance: growth in the trademark sodas was offset by a decline across the combined water, sports, coffee and tea category.
Why revenue rose without more drink volume
Coca-Cola reports two volume measures that track different stages of its business. Finished-drink volume reflects sales by the company and its bottling partners. Concentrate sales track ingredients such as concentrates and syrups moving through the system.
Their timing can differ. In North America, concentrate-sales growth ran two percentage points ahead of finished-drink volume in the third quarter. Along with the 1% price/mix increase, that helped produce 3% revenue growth despite the flat drink-volume figure.
Price/mix includes the effect of prices, the mix of products and package sizes sold, and where those sales occur. A shift toward a premium drink can increase revenue per sale. A change in the proportion sold through different channels can affect the measure too. It cannot tell a shopper how much the price of one unchanged bottle rose at a particular store.
Reuters describes a company selling both smaller, lower-priced packages to selective US shoppers and premium products such as fairlife milk. Higher packaging costs remain a pressure on the business.
What shoppers' price data show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' September inflation report provides a separate view of what US households paid. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.9% during the month, including a 1.5% increase in carbonated drinks, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the preceding 12 months, those categories rose 3.8% and 4.7%, respectively.
Those figures cover broader consumer markets than Coca-Cola's own business. They also measure retail prices, while Coca-Cola's price/mix includes changes in the products, packages and channels being sold.
A smaller price/mix increase does not establish that soda became cheaper at the checkout. Nor does flat North American volume establish that every beverage brand or every US household cut back.
What changed in the annual outlook
Global growth gives Coca-Cola room to raise its forecast despite the North American slowdown. The company's latest expectations are:
| Full-year measure | Previous outlook | New outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth | About 5% | At least 5% |
| Comparable earnings growth before currency effects and acquisitions or divestitures | 7% to 8% | At least 9% |
| Comparable earnings growth including those effects | 9% to 10% | At least 11% |
| Free cash flow | About $12.4 billion | At least $13 billion |
These are company-defined adjusted measures. The two earnings forecasts use different treatments of currency and business purchases or sales, which is why the 9% and 11% figures should not be used interchangeably.
Coca-Cola has supplied preliminary currency and divestiture considerations for 2027. It plans to issue full-year guidance when it reports fourth-quarter earnings.
