The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its corn harvest forecast by 141 million bushels on Tuesday, putting this year’s crop at about 15.9 billion bushels. The agency now expects growers to harvest 179.6 bushels an acre, down 1.6 from its October forecast. The estimate of 88.5 million acres harvested for grain stayed the same, so the change came from how much corn USDA expects those acres to produce.
The November supply and demand report also cut the amount of corn USDA expects to be left at the end of the marketing year. Corn futures rose after the release, according to Farm Progress. At the same time, USDA lowered its estimate of the price farmers will receive over the full marketing year by 10 cents, to $4.60 a bushel. A futures move after a report and a season-long estimate of farm prices cover different periods.
How the smaller harvest changes the balance
USDA lowered its forecast for feed and residual use by 25 million bushels, to 6 billion. The category includes feed and a statistical residual. The agency also lowered expected exports by 25 million bushels, to 3.3 billion, based on shipments and sales to date. Those reductions offset part of the smaller crop. USDA still expects less corn to remain at the end of the season, with ending stocks now projected at about 1.8 billion bushels.
For farmers and buyers comparing the October and November outlooks, the unchanged acreage estimate helps isolate what moved. The revision reduces production without assuming that farmers are harvesting fewer acres. The export change is a separate revision to expected demand. And the ending stocks figure represents what USDA expects to carry into the next marketing year, so it can change when either production or expected use moves.
What USDA expects outside the U.S.
USDA raised its corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil. It cited planting progress for the higher Argentine figure and a larger expected first-crop corn area for Brazil. These increases offset some of the reduction in U.S. output in the global outlook. The report still projected lower world corn trade, with reduced exports from the United States, Ukraine and India. The soybean balance moved differently. USDA raised its U.S. soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels and cut projected ending stocks by 15 million bushels, to 300 million. The November figures remain forecasts. USDA updates the balances as more harvest, shipment and price data become available.
