U.S. posts a $404 billion October deficit. How much came from early payments?

The federal government spent $773.0 billion and took in $368.9 billion in October, leaving a $404.1 billion deficit in the first month of fiscal 2027. That was $119.7 billion more than in October 2025, according to the Treasury Department’s monthly statement. Part of the gap reflects benefit payments that went out earlier because the first of November fell on a weekend. Even after Treasury adjusts for those shifts, the October deficit was about $94 billion larger than a year earlier.

The federal fiscal year starts Oct. 1. The October statement records cash that came in or went out during that month, so a payment moved by a day or two can change which month, or even which fiscal year, records it. The table shows where the reported year-over-year difference came from.

The changes use the unrounded figures in Treasury’s receipts and outlays table. Roughly seven dollars out of every ten in the increase came from higher spending. Lower receipts account for the rest.

When November payments fall in October

Nov. 1 fell on a Sunday this year and a Saturday last year. Some federal payments due at the start of November therefore went out in October in both years. The Social Security Administration’s payment calendar gives a household example. The November Supplemental Security Income payment was scheduled for Friday, Oct. 30. People paid on the regular Wednesday Social Security schedule follow separate dates.

The government's bookkeeping puts the early payments into the month when it sent them. That makes the reported October deficit larger and reduces the outlays November would otherwise record. Treasury’s October comparison adjusts the two years for those payment shifts. On that basis, October’s deficit was about $285 billion this year and about $191 billion last year. The adjusted difference, about $94 billion, is smaller than the reported $119.7 billion increase, but it still amounts to a rise of about 49%. Put another way, the different size of the calendar shifts in the two years explains about $26 billion of the increase in the reported deficit. The rest of the year-over-year increase remains after the adjustment.

Why receipts fell and spending rose

Net customs collections fell to $19.2 billion from $31.3 billion in October 2025. Those are receipts collected at the border after refunds. Individual income tax payments outside paycheck withholding also fell, to about $51 billion. Last October’s total included payments that came in after wildfire-related tax deadline extensions in California, which raised the year-earlier comparison.

Spending rose in several parts of the government. Treasury reported higher farm relief spending, higher military spending and higher interest costs. Part of the military increase reflects the timing of a payment to military trust funds that was delayed during last year’s government shutdown. Payment shifts therefore show up in more than one part of the comparison, and the cash totals alone cannot tell readers whether each change will repeat.

What the first month says about the year

The October deficit is the gap between receipts and outlays for a single month. In its review of the year ended Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office put the fiscal 2026 deficit at about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of gross domestic product, up from 5.8% the year before. Those figures cover a full year of tax deadlines and benefit payments. October starts the next fiscal year with a larger shortfall even after the calendar adjustment. November’s report will show the other side of the early payments, when the government’s cash accounts have fewer of those transfers left to record.